The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that African crude oil exports will fall by 600,000 b/d over the next six years as production from its biggest producers slips and rising regional refinery activity absorbs more domestic output, Platts reports
Regional crude production is set to decline by 400,000 b/d mainly due to fall in output in Nigeria, Algeria and Angola, according to the IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report. The IEA also said that West African oil producers such as Nigeria are likely to have problems marketing their crudes over the next couple of years due to the existing global glut of sweet crude, which has made this region a new “swing producer.”
Nigeria’s oil production is expected to decline by 70,000 b/d by 2021 to 1.85 million b/d as investment slows in the country’s high-cost deepwater projects and “large-scale oil theft and pipeline sabotage in the Niger Delta continues unabated.” The report also said that by 2021, the Dangote refinery project in Nigeria is expected to start-up, which will process Nigerian crudes and thus reduce the volumes for export. Crude runs are expected to reach 300,000 b/d in 2021 with the full 500,000 b/d nameplate capacity reached in subsequent years, the report said.